2014 Open Championship Preview

RECAP

I haven’t had a lot of time in the last few weeks so I’ve missed a few good events. Since I started previewing I’ve covered three majors and the so-called ‘fifth major’. In those four events, I’ve picked three winners and managed one place. I’m looking to keep my big event form going this week but it certainly won’t be easy.

PREVIEW

This year’s Open Championship is taking place at Royal Liverpool Golf Club (Hoylake) in Merseyside, England. It is a Par 72 measuring 7,350 yards and has hosted the Open Championship 11 times since 1897.

There are definitely some similarities between this course and Royal Birkdale, another Merseyside course. The last three players to win the Open at Hoylake are Tiger Woods, Roberto De Vicenzo and Peter Thomson, they all managed a Top 5 in the previous Open at Royal Birkdale.

Tiger Woods finished 3rd in 1998, De Vicenzo finished 4th in 1967 and Thomson won the Open in 1954 before he triumphed at Hoylake in ’56. So, it’s definitely worth giving the 2008 Open Championship leaderboard a quick look. If history holds and somebody from the Top 5 manages to win here then one of Padraig Harrington, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk or Chris Wood will win.

The Par 5s played incredibly easily in 2006 so players will need to take full advantage to contend this week. Presuming most players take advantage of the Par 5s, Par 4 Performance will be key. There never seems to be one key stat at Open Championships, you just need to do everything well.

TIPS

Henrik STENSON 2.5 Points E/W at 16/1 with 7 Places (Widely Available)

Stenson is in incredible form and his recent major record is fantastic. If anyone deserves to win this major then it is Henrik Stenson. He finished T3 at Royal Birkdale in 2008. In his last 4 events, he’s finished T7-5-T4-T2. His worst finish in the last 6 majors is a T21, and he has 3 Top 3 finishes in his last 5 Opens. He is deserving of a major and he could move to OWGR #1 with a win. If Rose hadn’t won back-to-back events then I would make him favourite.

Jim FURYK 1.5 Points E/W at 60/1 with 7 Places (Bet365)

Jim Furyk is the only player that featured in the Top 5 at both the ’06 Open Championship at Hoylake and the ’08 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. He also managed a T4 at Birkdale in 1998. He hasn’t played since his Top 15 at the U.S. Open this year but in his last 9 starts he has only finished outside the Top 20 once. He has performed well on the Par 4s this year. He is 44 which seems a good age to win the Open Championship and he’s one of the most experienced players in the field. He has played in 18 Open Championships, placing 4 times and managing one other Top 10. He is available at 66/1 with 6 Places but I’d rather take the extra place and 60/1.

Jason DUFNER 1.0 Point E/W at 100/1 with 8 Places (Betfair Sportsbook)

Dufner’s Open Championship form has slowly improved over the years. He’s gone MC-MC-T31-T26. In November 2012, Dufner tweeted ‘Top 5 courses in no order. Pebble beach, Augusta National, Kingston Heath, Oak Hill, and Royal Liverpool.’ He has since gone on to win a major at Oak Hill so maybe he’ll continue that trend and win at Royal Liverpool too. I backed him at Oak Hill with that in the back of my mind and since then I’ve been waiting for this event.

Matteo MANASSERO 0.5 Points E/W at 135/1 with 6 Places (Stan James)

Last week he recorded his first Top 10 in a few months and I think he’s a future major winner. He’s got the mentality to win a big event, which he proved by winning the BMW PGA Championship in 2013. This course should suit his game and if he’s back in form then this is a very big price. He was the low amateur in 2009 when he finished T13, when he was just 16 years old.

Hiroshi IWATA 0.2 Points E/W at 1000/1 with 8 Places (Betfair Sportsbook)

This may be a name you’re not familiar with but Iwata is very talented. On the Japan Golf Tour, he ranks 1st in Par 5 Performance, 1st in Putting Average and 3rd in Scoring Average. This year he has made 9 cuts out of 9 and has 6 Top 7 finishes. He is a big outsider but he has a lot of ability and he may just be able to shock a few.

Points Staked: 11.4 Points

Profit/Loss: +371.56 Points

2014 Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship

PREVIEW

This is my first European Tour Preview of the year. The tournament is the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship, it is played at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. It is a Par 72 measuring approximately 7,600 yards. You don’t have to be a long-hitter to win despite the length of the course. To win here you simply have to play well and card a few low rounds. Martin Kaymer won here three times in four years between 2008 and 2011. The edition he didn’t win, in 2009, resulted in a 2nd place finish. There are a lot of players with very strong records here, McIlroy and Stenson also have multiple Top 5 finishes, for example.

TIPS

Branden GRACE 1.25 Points E/W at 33/1 with 6 Places (Paddy Power)

Grace almost won last week and were it not for some poor play around the greens on the back 9 on Sunday then he definitely would have. He missed the cut on his first appearance here in 2012 but last year he fared much better. He shot a 65 (best round all week) in the final round to shoot up the leaderboard and he eventually finished in solo 5th. He won 5 times (4 ET wins and 1 Sunshine Tour win) in 2012 but went winless last year. He seems the most likely candidate to join the group of South Africans who have won a major in their 20s. 40/1 was available early and 35/1 is still around but I’d rather take 33/1 and an extra place.

Thorbjorn OLESEN 0.75 Points E/W at 60/1 with 6 Places (Paddy Power)

I haven’t been that impressed with Olesen of late. At the Masters he shot 78 on Thursday but rallied back and managed -10 for the final 3 days, the best of any player. That was good enough for a T6 in his first ever Masters but since then he’s seemed a bit lacklustre. Nevertheless, he has appeared here twice and has finished in the Top 10 both times. In 2012, he shot 4 rounds under par on his way to a tie for 8th and in 2013 he was the only player to manage 4 rounds in the 60s. He finished 1 stroke behind winner Jamie Donaldson. Clearly the course suits and once again longer odds are available but I’m opting for the extra place.

Matteo MANASSERO 0.75 Points E/W at 70/1 with 6 Places (Stan James)

He has won on Tour every year for the last four years. It’s sometimes easy to forget that he is only 20. He is an immense talent and is a future major winner for sure. He’s played in this event four times, garnering one top 10. He’s never missed a cut there and hopefully he can challenge this week. He was 10th in his last event and I believe that if he plays his best then he can hold his own against the best in the world.

Points Staked: 6.0 Points

Profit/Loss: +200.64 Points