This is going to be a random collection of information. Some useful. Some not so much. Oakmont Country Club is a Par 70 measuring 7,230 Yards in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. The course has hosted the U.S. Open nine times, the PGA Championship three times, the U.S. Amateur Championship five times and the U.S. Women’s Open twice.
The 1st, 9th, 10th and 18th played the four hardest holes in 2007 and that was almost all down to the rough. The rough cost players over half a stroke on all four of those holes. One of the most famous holes on the course is the bizarrely long Par 3 8th. It can play as long as 288 Yards and has one of the hardest greens to find in professional golf. There were 437 shots into the green in 2007 and only 117 shots found their way onto the putting surface.
There are a number of short Par 4 holes on the course. Five of the twelve Par 4s measure less than 400 yards and those play as some of the easier holes on the course. The Par 5 4th played as the 2nd easiest hole in 2007 but the other Par 5 is a much less appetising prospect. The 12th played 0.4 strokes over par and ranked as the 7th hardest hole on the course.
OAKMONT RESULTS
Next up, here are all the results of players in this year’s field that played Oakmont Country Club in the 1994 U.S. Open, 2003 U.S. Amateur, and the 2007 U.S. Open.
Ernie Els, Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson are the only players in the field that played at Oakmont in the 1994 U.S. Open. Els (69-71-66-73) shot 74 in an 18-Hole Playoff, tying Roberts and eliminating Montgomerie and then won the tournament after another two extra holes. Jim Furyk (74-69-74-75) managed a very respectable T28 in his first ever major start and Phil Mickelson tied for 47th after rounds of 75-70-73-79.
Nine of the players in this field played in the 2003 U.S. Amateur. J.B. Holmes was the medalist after a round of 68 at Pittsburgh Field Club and an even par 70 at Oakmont. Bill Haas (74), Brandt Snedeker (74), Spencer Levin (74), Billy Hurley III (74), Jason Kokrak (75), Ryan Moore (76), Derek Fathauer (77) and Chris Kirk (82) all shot over par for their rounds at Oakmont. Subsequently, Kokrak, Fathauer and Kirk all failed to qualify for the Match Play portion. Moore, Snedeker and Levin all lost in their first match, Holmes and Hurley III lost in the 2nd Round and Haas won three matches before losing in the Quarter Finals.
Furyk (T2: 71-75-70-70), Snedeker (T23: 71-73-77-74), Els (T51: 73-76-74-78), Mickelson (MC: 74-77), Moore (MC: 78-73) and Kokrak (MC: 76-80) were all making their second appearance at Oakmont in the 2007 U.S. Open.
Twenty-two other players in the field for the 2016 U.S. Open were making their first appearance at Oakmont nine years ago. Ángel Cabrera won the tournament, beating Furyk and Woods by a shot after rounds of 69-71-76-69. David Toms (T5: 72-72-73-72), Bubba Watson (T5: 70-71-74-74), Paul Casey (T10: 77-66-72-76), Justin Rose (T10: 71-71-73-76), J.J. Henry (T26: 71-78-75-72), Peter Hanson (T30: 71-74-78-74), Graeme McDowell (T30: 73-72-75-77), Charl Schwartzel (T30: 75-73-73-76), Jeev Milka Singh (T36: 75-75-73-75), Lee Westwood (T36: 72-75-79-72), Geoff Ogilvy (T42: 71-75-78-75), Zach Johnson (T45: 76-74-76-74) and Jason Dufner (62nd: 71-75-79-80) all made the cut but the remaining eight didn’t fare so well.
Luke Donald (74-77), Lucas Glover (71-80), Soren Kjeldsen (76-75), Retief Goosen (77-76), Toru Taniguchi (78-75), Sergio Garcia (79-75), Henrik Stenson (79-76) and Adam Scott (76-82) all struggled in the conditions and failed to make the weekend but will be hoping to do better this time around.
What does this tell us? Well, Oakmont is really, really hard. 34 of the golfers in the field for the 2016 U.S. Open have played 112 competitive rounds at Oakmont and only six of those rounds have been under par. Els shot 66 on Thursday and 69 on Saturday on his way to winning in 1994. Furyk managed a 69 on Friday of that year. In 2007, Cabrera shot two rounds of 69 and Paul Casey fired a tournament low 66. Basically, only four players in this field have shot in the 60s at Oakmont.
U.S. OPEN WINNERS HISTORY
This section will be a quick look at how U.S. Open winners fared in their last start before winning, when and where that was and what their best finish of the year had been. Since 1989, every U.S. Open winner had at least one Top 6 finish in the year of their win. 23 of the 27 had a Top 3 finish and 14 of them had won already.
Since Curtis Strange won at Oak Hill CC in 1989, 22 of the 27 U.S. Open winners were coming off a Top 25 finish in their last start. Lucas Glover was coming off a T45 at Memorial but he is the only winner since ’89 to make the cut in his last start and not finish in the Top 25.
Geoff Ogilvy played the week before he won at Winged Foot GC in 2006 and Tiger Woods hadn’t played since the Masters when he beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff at Torrey Pines in 2008. Other than those two, nine of the last sixteen winners made their last start at Memorial and the other four last played in the UK. Payne Stewart in 1999 is the only U.S. Open winner since 1989 to have made his last start at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
OAKMONT 2007 STATS
Many people assume that Oakmont is all about the fairways but Ángel Cabrera hit only 27 of 56 fairways on his way to winning in 2007 and Niclas Fasth finished solo 4th having hit only 25. Just four of the eventual Top 10 finished in the Top 20 in Driving Accuracy and of the Top 5 only Jim Furyk ranked better than T25.
5 of the Top 10 finished 11th or better in Driving Distance but that is also not a necessity. Jim Furyk (T2) and David Toms (T5) ranked T44 in Length of the Tee. Cabrera was 2nd in 2007 and Fasth was 6th so the players that performed well having ranked low in Driving Accuracy ranked high in Distance off the Tee.
Putting well at Oakmont is extremely important. The greens are tough and avoiding three putts is key. Nine of the Top 20 ranked inside the Top 15 in Average Putts. Once again though, Cabrera is messing with statistical norms and finished T28 in Putting on his way to victory.
This all leads us to what appears to be most important at Oakmont Country Club. Greens in Regulation is always important and this year will be no different. With a plethora of green-side bunkers and thick rough everywhere, getting it on the green is massively important. Tiger Woods hit 49 greens and finished tied for 2nd, whilst Cabrera (1st), Toms (T5) and Kelly (T7) each hit 47 Greens in Regulation. Ultimately, 10 of the Top 13 in GIR finished in the Top 20 for the week.
STATS TO WATCH
Tiger Woods made eight birdies and no eagles and still managed to finish T2. Scott Verplank made seven birdies and finished T7. This is not a course where you need to make birdies. You are better off playing safe and avoiding anything worse than par. Geoff Ogilvy made more birdies than anyone in 2007 but still finished well down the field in T42 thanks to 25 bogeys and four double bogeys. So as you imagine, Bogey Avoidance will be important this week.
One of the stats that I’m very interested in is Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. In 2007, 22 of the Top 25 at Oakmont played enough golf on the PGA Tour to warrant a place in the rankings and only two of them finished outside the Top 100 in this statistic. Nine of them were in the Top 25 and of the Top 10 only three were outside the Top 25 and only two were outside the Top 50.
Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) is another place I want to focus. Ten of the twelve that finished T10 or better have been measured in this stat. Cabrera, Furyk, Casey and Rose have all finished a year ranked top of this ranking, as has Ogilvy (led the field in birdies at Oakmont). Toms, Verplank, Watson and Woods have all finished in the Top 10 in the stat at least once and only Ames and Kelly haven’t done well coming out of the rough.
The greens at Oakmont are going to be fast. It’s tough to know if difficult greens will reward great putters like Day and Spieth or if they will even it all out and give an advantage to worse putters like Webb Simpson and Louis Oosthuizen. Terrible putters have won majors on fast greens before though so I’m inclined to give the terrible putters a chance on tougher greens. Still, keeping big numbers off the card will be important so I’ll be taking a close look at 3-Putt Avoidance.
With all that said, the stats I’ll be looking at are Par 4 Performance, Greens in Regulation, Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) and 3-Putt Avoidance. I’ll also have a look at Driving Accuracy and also Scrambling or Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
REALISTIC WINNER BETS
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last few weeks trying to decide which player I believe is going to win at Oakmont. I’ve gone back and forth many times and have ruled out a lot of golfers who realistically have a great chance. I’ve decided to take a risk and go for three top-class players that have struggled with the putter of late. Having seen videos posted by multiple golfers, the greens appear to be positively ridiculous.
Sergio Garcia is up first at 50/1 with 6 Places on offer. This seems like a mistake but if the greens even everything out then he has a great chance. For the third time in his career, the streaky Spaniard arrives at the U.S. Open having won in his last start. In 2004, he finished T20 and in 2005, he ended up tied for 3rd. This time around, he has had a break in between the events and I think that can only help. Garcia ranks 1st in GIR and 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and I sincerely believe this could be the week.
Charl Schwartzel is up next. He had a decent showing at Oakmont in 2007 finishing T30 and at 80/1 he seems like incredible value. Two Top 10s and four Top 20s in the last six U.S. Opens, Schwartzel has started to show a liking for the event. Already a winner in 2016, Schwartzel finished T11 at Memorial in his last start and has been getting better and better each week leading into this event. Schwartzel is a good statistical fit, ranking 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, T18 in GIR, T24 in Par 4 Performance and T47 in Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough).
The 150/1 on Webb Simpson is long gone but there is still 125/1 available. Simpson hasn’t made anything worse than bogey and has ranked 4th and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last two starts. The North Carolina man ranks 6th for the year in Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) and T22 in Par 4 Performance. Simpson’s last start was at Memorial and his T11 was a solid showing. Webb is 5-for-5 at the U.S. Open and having won the event at a tough course already, looks great value, even at 125/1.
LONGSHOT BETS
K.T. Kim is 2-for-2 in the U.S. Open which includes a solid showing at Congressional in 2011. T4 after Round 1, T8 after Round 2 and 9th after Round 3, only a solid final round kept Kim from a very strong finish. Since his last U.S. Open appearance, Kim has elevated his game to an incredibly high level. In his last thirty starts, Kim has won eight times and his current form reads: 1-T2-1-T3-2-1-T36. Not a great driver of the ball but he still hits a bunch of greens and makes a lot of putts. At 300/1 with 6 Places, I cannot justify leaving him out.
Another ante-post bet, this price is still available. Grégory Bourdy has gone T10-T15-T6 in his last three starts at three fairly difficult courses and he looks like really good value at 500/1 with 6 Places on offer. The Frenchman ranked inside the Top 25 in Driving Accuracy and GIR at Wentworth and Diamond CC so his game looks to be in great shape for Oakmont. Bourdy has won four times on the European Tour with his last win coming at Celtic Manor so he can clearly play tough courses. Is he a likely winner? Not particularly. Is he capable of finishing in the Top 5? Very.
Gary Stal at 1000/1 with 7 Places was my final ante-post bet. That price is also still available. Stal won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in 2015 and that should have been the start of a great career on the European Tour, but it hasn’t panned out that way. That tournament has seen an incredible number of top class players finishing towards the top of the leaderboard. However, a T6 in Austria last week was only his third Top 10 in 35 starts since the win. Stal showed his ability this week, ranking 18th in Driving Accuracy, T11 in GIR, 27th in Driving Distance and 1st in Putts per GIR. I’m very happy to see what Stal can do this week at an enormous price.