Ryder Cup Friday Foursomes Preview

Alternate shot may be the greatest format in golf. Forcing one golfer to rely so heavily on another means that it’s much harder to form a good team than in regular fourballs. Davis Love III has chosen to open with the fourballs format on Friday morning and, well, it’s hardly surprising. Even though the US have a slightly worse record when it comes to foursomes, Team USA have not won a Ryder Cup opening with fourballs since 1979.

MATCH 1: Justin Rose & Henrik Stenson V Jordan Spieth & Patrick Reed

Right off the bat we have an all-time great match. Two teams that have dominated team competitions in the last couple of years coming face to face to start the Ryder Cup. Let’s start off with records. Justin Rose is an impressive 6-1-1 in career foursomes, taking 81.25% of the total points available to him. Henrik Stenson is 6-3-2 (63.64%). Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed have much less experience but contrasting records. Spieth is unbeaten in foursomes at 2-0-1 (83.33%) whereas Reed has never won in the format in three tries, 0-2-1 (16.67%).

As a tandem, both pairs have been formidable. Rose/Stenson are 1-0-0 in foursomes and 3-0-0 overall. Spieth/Reed halved the only foursomes match they’ve played but boast an impressive 3-0-0 record in fourballs. Neither of these teams have ever been beaten but this time out, I’m happy to run with experience over youth and exuberance and back the Europeans to start the Ryder Cup with a win at 13/10.

Match 2: Rory McIlroy & Andy Sullivan V Phil Mickelson & Rickie Fowler

Rickie Fowler will be desperate to end his streak of not winning in the second match out today. The 27-year-old has failed to win a match at the Ryder Cup in eight attempts. In two Ryder Cups and one Presidents Cup, he boasts a record of 1-6-5. Not exactly eye-catching. In contrast to the last two pairs, the two teams don’t have a wealth of experience playing together. Mickelson and Fowler had one match together at the 2010 Ryder Cup and they lost it. McIlroy and Sullivan have not played together before in a team event.

When it comes to records, Mickelson’s is probably better than you think. At 15-12-7 in foursomes, Lefty has a 54.41% point return which is decent enough. That said, take away the Presidents Cup and he’s a fairly disappointing 4-6-4 (42.86%). Fowler is not any better. In fact, he’s worse. It is true that his only ever win came in foursomes but his record still stands at 1-2-2 (40.00%). McIlroy holds a 3-2-1 (58.33%) record and Sullivan won his only foursomes match when paired with Shane Lowry at this year’s EurAsia Cup. I am almost sure that the US pairing will not come out on top here but of the last forty Ryder Cup foursomes matches, ten have been halved and given there’s new blood being tested and that Rickie Fowler has halved 62.5% of his Ryder Cup matches, I’ll be backing the Tie at 6/1.

Match 3: Sergio Garcia & Martin Kaymer V Zach Johnson & Jimmy Walker

Zach Johnson is another player hoping to end a poor streak this week. Having lost all four of his Ryder Cups, Johnson is probably even more desperate than most to come out on top this week. Holding a 8-6-1 record in foursomes, Zach Johnson has performed well in the format over the years. Once again though, the Presidents Cup skews that data in his favour. Johnson is 3-4-1 at the Ryder Cup, which is a little bit less impressive. Jimmy Walker hasn’t got that much experience so it’s hard to judge but his 1-1-1 record is reasonable.

Is there a better foursomes player in the world than Sergio Garcia? Maybe not. His record has soured a bit in recent years but he’s still one of the best. At one stage Garcia held an incomparable 8-0-0 record in the format. Now he’s 9-2-2 but that’s still tough to beat. Martin Kaymer has somehow only played in two foursomes matches. Both ended in a tie so it’s perhaps too soon to judge him. Both teams will be appearing together for the first time and with all of that in mind, Garcia & Kaymer have to be selected at 23/20.

Match 4: Lee Westwood & Thomas Pieters V Dustin Johnson & Matt Kuchar

Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar are another pair with some experience playing together. They halved their only foursomes match back at the 2011 Presidents Cup but they have won both of their fourball matches. DJ lost the only foursomes match he played at the Ryder Cup but is 3-0-1 in the Presidents Cup, make of that what you will. Matt Kuchar is a really good fourball player. Foursomes, on the other hand, not so much. The permanent grin has been hard to keep up while battling his way to a 2-5-2 record in career foursomes giving him a point return percentage of just 33.33%.

Not for the first time, Lee Westwood has been given the task of bringing a rookie into the fray. Thomas Pieters will be appearing in his first ever foursomes match this morning but there’s every chance he can succeed. Westwood boasts a very impressive 13-5-4 record in the format and has proved his worth when paired with rookies over the years. I absolutely believe that Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar are the more likely winners in this match but I do not agree with the odds. At a huge 12/5, Westwood and Pieters get the bet.

Ryder Cup Preview

The Ryder Cup is back in the good old US of A and the Americans are mightily confident. The question is: Are they overconfident? Yes. If the European team needed any extra inspiration then the haughty comments from Davis Love III and Johnny Miller will have given them all they need.

Is Team USA better than Team Europe? On paper, yes. That isn’t anything new though. The US have had the superior team on paper more often than not in the last fifteen years and yet they’ve only won one of the seven Ryder Cups that have taken place in that time.

Hazeltine National is the host course for the event and that too would seem to benefit the Europeans. In 2009, at the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer all finished in the Top 6 at Hazeltine. And no Ryder Cup team member finished higher than Sergio Garcia when the PGA Championship was played at Hazeltine in 2002.

To go even further, the WGC-Match Play has been played twice since the last Ryder Cup. The European Ryder Cup team have an overall record of 40-26-5 in those two events and Team USA are 42-34-6. So what? Yeh, Europe are slightly better but there’s not a huge difference. The difference comes when you separate group matches from latter stage matches. Once it becomes life or death, the Americans can’t keep up. Their players are a pathetic 3-10 after the group stages. The Europeans are 10-4.

Rory McIlroy’s FedEx Cup win will be another big boost to Team Europe. The majority of the American Team played at the Tour Championship and Dustin Johnson seemed the likely winner with a round to go. Rory McIlroy was the only member of the European team that featured at East Lake and he came out on top. With six rookies on the team though, Team Europe can be backed at 2/1 to make it nine Ryder Cup wins in the last eleven.

As a European, I am definitely biased. There is something, however, that is stopping the USA from winning Ryder Cups. The only Ryder Cup that Team USA has won since the turn of the century was all but handed to them by Nick Faldo. Better players and a heck ton of ‘Murican pride just hasn’t been enough for the Bald Eagle ridin’, gun totin’ sons of Lady Liberty. There’s a mental block there. Europe have won eight of the last ten Ryder Cups and four of those have been by a single point. Team USA had no business losing the 2012 Ryder Cup at Medinah and yet the Europeans performed a miracle. They wanted it more and the USA let them have it. Not ‘let them have it’ in a cool, “they let ’em have it,” sort of way. They just didn’t put up much of a fight.

This may all seem like crazy rhetoric but I genuinely believe that Europe will be lifting the trophy on Sunday. That said, I’ll be looking beyond the 2/1 for Europe to win and trying to find value elsewhere.

I did manage to back the correct score at the last Ryder Cup and I’ll be looking for the same again this time. Other than the absolute thrashing in 2004, the away team winning tends to be by a narrow margin. Five of the last ten Ryder Cups have ended 14.5 – 13.5 and I think we’re in for more of the same. Europe to Win 14.5 – 13.5 at 11/1 is my main bet in the Correct Score market but I’ll be having small bets on Europe 15 – 13 at 14/1 and also  Europe 15.5 – 12.5 at 18/1.

When it comes to picking the Top Combined Points Scorer, you have to look for players that are likely to play five matches. For Europe, that’ll probably be Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose and for USA, it’ll likely be Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth. There’s been an interesting pattern in Ryder Cup Top Points Scorers over the years.

1993: Corey Pavin – Joint Top Points Scorer

1995: Corey Pavin – Top Points Scorer

1997: Colin Montgomerie – Top Points Scorer

1999: Colin Montgomerie – Joint Top Points Scorer

2002: Colin Montgomerie – Top Points Scorer

2004: Sergio Garcia/Lee Westwood – Joint Top Points Scorers

2006: Sergio Garcia/Lee Westwood – Joint Top Points Scorers

2008: Ian Poulter – Top Points Scorer

2010: Ian Poulter – Joint Top Points Scorer

2012: Ian Poulter – Top Points Scorer

2014: Justin Rose – Top Points Scorer

If that doesn’t make it clear, I’ll be backing Justin Rose at 14/1. Even in the two Ryder Cups that Europe have lost, there’s been a European leading the scoring and the same players have come back in consecutive Cups time after time. Rose has proven himself to be a top class player at multiple Ryder Cups and I expect him to show what he can do once again this week. Rose won an Olympic Gold Medal the last time he represented his country, now he’s representing his continent and I think he’ll come out on top again.

Finally, I’ll have a double on Ryan Moore to be Top American Debutant and Rafael Cabrera-Bello to be Top European Debutant at 10.55/1. Moore only has one opponent in his market. Brooks Koepka is the only other rookie on Team USA and I’m more than happy to take the form man with the great match-play pedigree at odds against. RCB has much stiffer competition. Five other rookies will be challenging the Spaniard but I fancy him to come out on top. Cabrera-Bello finished 3rd at the WGC-Match Play earlier this year and I think he’ll go very well this week.

2016 John Deere Classic

The John Deere Classic rarely attracts the leading lights of the PGA Tour. This year, however, it’s even worse than usual. After Jordan Spieth’s withdrawal from the Olympics, he decided that it would be insulting if he showed up and played at TPC Deere Run. Take his name out of the usual field and it’s just Zach Johnson. That’s about it.

Speaking of ZJ, his record at the Silvis, Illinois course is nothing short of sensational. Since 2009, he has 28 (TWENTY-EIGHT!?!) consecutive rounds in the 60s at TPC Deere Run. Averaging just 66.57 on the Par 71 course, Johnson is -124 in the last seven stagings. The clear favourite at 15/2, I won’t be backing him this week but I also wouldn’t talk anyone out of betting him.

The rest of the field is pretty awful. None of the players that are shorter than 100/1 have won on the PGA Tour in the 2015-16 season. I’m fairly confident that has never happened in an August event in the history of the Tour. Steve Stricker won three times in a row at TPC Deere Run between 2009 and 2011 and he is second favourite at 12/1.

6 of the last 7 winners of this event finished the year ranked inside the Top 20 in Putting Average, Scoring Average and Birdie Average. The only two players that have a chance of accomplishing that feat this year are Daniel Summerhays (T14; 37th; T30) and Kevin Na (20th; 20th; T36). Adam Hawin and Ricky Barnes are the only other two players that rank in the Top 20 in the field in those three stats.

With all of the short Par 4s at TPC Deere Run, good wedge players tend to find success at the John Deere Classic. Longer hitters could be hitting wedge shots into eight of the Par 4s each day. If that’s the route you want to take then look at Approaches From 50-125 Yards.

I quite like Daniel Summerhays this week but cannot back him at the price available. Instead I’ll be looking at the players at three figure prices and hoping for an outsider winning. First up is Vaughn Taylor at 125/1. One of the only players in the field that has actually won on the PGA Tour this year, Taylor looks much too big when you look at the players he’s competing against.

Taylor has a T12 and a T6 at the course and arrives in fairly decent form. Vaughn hasn’t missed a cut in his last four events and ranks highly in all of the right categories. Ranking 4th in Proximity to the Hole and Fairway Proximity, 6th in Approaches from 50-125 Yards and T23 in Putting Average. Taylor started really well last week, leading after the 1st Round, at a course that suits better, I really like his chances.

I’ve been waiting for this event for a couple of months with the specific idea of backing Brendon de Jonge. At 150/1, the Zimbabwean’s missed cut last week has pushed his price out further than it should be. De Jonge withdrew from the Olympics citing his FedEx Cup ranking and needs a strong performance to secure his PGA Tour card for next year. After finishing T7 at TPC Deere Run in 2010, de Jonge found himself with a great chance to win the event in 2011. A poor final round left him T7 yet again but at least we know the course suits.

Next up is Tyrone Van Aswegen, also at 150/1. The South African was T10 after the first round at TPC Deere Run last year. Eight consecutive cuts has him T10 on the Consecutive Cuts Made rankings. He finally turned that form into a good result last week, finishing T5 at the Travelers. That’s it, he’s playing well right now, might go well again.

Carlos Ortiz is finally starting to show something resembling form. A Top 50 in Canada was his first since Riviera back in February. T17 last week was his best finish since the 2015 Valero Texas Open. The Mexican earned a “battlefield promotion” to the PGA Tour after winning three events on the Web.com Tour in 2014, in what is one of the weakest fields the PGA Tour will assemble, Ortiz might find himself back in the winner’s circle. If the 25-year-old can continue to improve then the 175/1 will look very big come Sunday.

Last up is Andrew Loupe at 300/1. If you can look past his eight consecutive missed cuts and his two missed cuts in two starts at TPC Deere Run, then Loupe looks like an enticing prospect. The long hitter has six Top 10 finishes in 62 PGA Tour starts. Loupe has only played the weekend eight times in nineteen starts in 2016 but has finished in the Top 5 on two of those occasions.

The missed cut last week was on the number after being tied for the lead after Round One so it can definitely be looked at as something of a positive. Loupe is one of only two players in the field ranked inside the Top 15 in two of the three stats mentioned. At 9th in Putting Average and T12 in Birdie Average, Loupe joins three-time JDC winner Steve Stricker (12th PA; 12th SA) in that pair. If 1st Round Travelers Loupe shows up then he’s in with a chance. If 2nd Round Travelers Loupe shows up, well, it’s only a small bet.

My preview of the Men’s Olympic Golf Tournament can be found here: https://t.co/rBuu0q5R7j

2016 PGA Championship Preview

There’s just something about the PGA Championship that holds it back from the other three majors. If you asked every professional male golfer in the world to rank the majors from one to four, I fear the PGA would find itself at the bottom of almost every list. Nevertheless, most golfers would rather win the worst major tournament than the best non-major so it still garners excitement.

This year, however, there’s another problem. With golf’s inclusion in the Olympics, the schedule has been upset. The first tee shot of the PGA Championship will take place just eleven days after Henrik Stenson’s name was carved into the Claret Jug. That’s simply not enough time.

The year’s final major has been forced into a terrible position and despite being a major it feels thoroughly underwhelming. As Thursday draws closer, I’m sure the fanfare will consume me but right now I’m a long way from peak excitement.

Glory’s Last Shot (or whatever it’s now called) will return to Baltusrol Golf Club’s Lower Course for only the second time. There have been some fairly significant changes to the course since Phil Mickelson won by one in 2005. The updates are mostly there to combat the increase in players’ length. Some tees have been moved back and bunkers have been relocated to make them more dangerous for longer hitters off the tee.

The Lower Course and Upper Course at Baltusrol were both designed by renowned golf course architect A.W. Tillinghast. Bethpage Black, Winged Foot and Ridgewood CC are just a few of the multitude of courses to his name. Most importantly, Tillinghast is an exceptionally consistent designer. The majority of his courses ask the same questions of golfers and so any form at the courses mentioned above can be taken as key.

The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational was once the great pointer for the PGA Championship. In its time as the preceding event, no PGA Championship winner finished outside the Top 25 at Firestone CC. Despite losing its place on the schedule, there are a number of things that suggest that leaderboard could be significant. A.W. Tillinghast was a consultant on Firestone and it shows a lot of the same characteristics as Baltusrol. They are both lengthy Par 70s where long, straight driving is vital.

Recent form will still be an excellent guide. All of the last twelve PGA Championship winners had finished in the Top 25 in their last start and eleven of them had already won in the year of their win. They had also all made at least their last two cuts. Only nine men meet those three criteria. Day, DJ, Rory, Stenson, Garcia, Snedeker, Charl, Dufner and Vegas. We know that the last 16 major winners were all ranked inside the OWGR Top 30 so we can rule out Dufner and Vegas.

That cuts the list down to seven so to finish it off let’s say we’re on a streak of four maiden major winners and six of the last eight PGA Championship winners were non-American. Apply those and we’re left with… what do you know, it’s Sergio Garcia. Yes. You caught me. I may have fiddled with those numbers a bit but they’re all true. For what it’s worth, he also has by far the best A.W. Tillinghast course form of the bunch, with Day and DJ a fair distance behind.

Most of my bets were recommended on Twitter in recent weeks and prices have plummeted so I’ll give a rundown of them in the order that I backed them and discuss if there’s any value left in the current price.

The Sunday of the Bridgestone, I backed  Scott Piercy for this tournament at 150/1. At 125/1, Piercy is still a great price. The missed cut at the Open isn’t any great worry, some players never conquer links golf. The fact that Piercy owns runner-up finishes at perhaps the two most similar courses played this year says it all. In the US, his major record has been improving with every one and at a course that should suit, Piercy is as obvious as they come.

In a recent interview, Piercy said that he was playing the best golf of his career and he clearly knows the situation as far as majors go. “Give me enough shots at the game and I’m probably going to make some noise. And it’s time to make some noise. I’m not getting any younger.”

Last Wednesday, I was sat in Dublin Airport waiting for my gate to appear and decided to take a quick look at the PGA Championship odds. Arriving in incredible form and with a Tillinghast record second only to Mickelson, I imagined Sergio Garcia would be in the 22/1-28/1 range. I scrolled up and down thinking I’d missed him when I spotted him at 40/1. My phone is about four years old and not exactly in peak condition. It took me about fifteen minutes to successfully place my bet at what I believe were outstanding odds.

By the time my plane landed, the 40/1 was gone, replaced by 33/1. Now the best price is 28/1. I can’t stress this enough. Garcia is still a bet at 28/1. It seems almost impossible that Garcia will not find himself in the Top 7 at the end of the week and that’s the number of places on offer at Paddy Power. The Spaniard pretty much always plays well on Tillinghast courses and is playing some of the best golf of his career right now.

As I mentioned above, Phil Mickelson is the master of the Tillinghast course. Since 2000, four majors have been contested on his courses and Phil hasn’t finished worse than T2. I took 25/1 last Wednesday and there’s still 22/1 around. I’ve heard a few people say that Mickelson doesn’t have another major in him, I’ve heard others say he’ll never win again. I’ll take his word for it though, “I am playing the best golf of my life, I truly believe that I still have some big wins in me if I keep playing like I have been.”

Coming off a runner-up finish at the Open where he finished eleven shots clear of the man in 3rd and returning to a course where he’s the only man to win a PGA Championship, his chances this week are very obvious. I absolutely believe that Mickelson has an excellent chance to pick up his sixth major this week.

On Thursday morning, just before he went out and shot a terrible round in Canada, I backed Kevin Streelman at 200/1. After missing the cut, he went out to 250/1 and I’m perfectly happy to recommend him at that price. Prior to the missed cut he had finished T8-T13-T12 in his last three starts and his record on A.W. Tillinghast courses is also very strong.

Streelman is one of only five players in the field with multiple Top 5 finishes at his designs. The other four being Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Matt Kuchar. Over two years have passed since Streelman closed with a record-breaking seven birdies to win the Travelers Championship for his 2nd PGA Tour win. The 37-year old has Top 15 finishes to his name in all of the major championships contested in the US. I think he’s very capable of going a few better and managing a Top 5.

Steve Stricker is 49-years-old, he plays golf about five times a year and he still manages to compete with the best in the world on a regular basis. When I backed Stricker at 200/1 last Thursday, I was well aware that the price wouldn’t last. The best price is now just 100/1 and I can’t quite justify recommending him at that price. If you’re looking for somebody in that price range, Jason Dufner would be my pick. I backed him at 45/1 when he won this tournament in 2013 and of all the players at three figure prices, I suspect his chances are the best.

The first and only price I took this week was the 66/1 about Charl Schwartzel. It’s still there and it’s still an excellent price. As noted above, he was one of the seven golfers that ticked all of the boxes and when you look at his recent results, it’s hard to justify this price. In his last twenty starts, Schwartzel has missed just one cut. On top of that, he has three wins and fifteen Top 25s, including six in a row coming into this week.

The South African was 6th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and T1 in GIR at Firestone CC a few weeks ago. Those are the sort of stats that will win this tournament. Schwartzel will make mistakes but he will also make more birdies than just about anyone. Over the three weeks of the U.S. Open, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and the Open Championship, Schwartzel made 45 birdies. That’s five more than Dustin Johnson, you know the guy who went 1st-1st-T9 in those three events. If Charl can limit the errors at Baltusrol then he will be right at the top of this leaderboard come Sunday.

 

 

 

2016 Open Championship Preview

After consecutive USGA Majors ended in mishandled rules infractions, it feels great to be back in the safe hands of the R&A. Returning to Royal Troon for the first time since 2004, The Open Championship is set for another great year. Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy make up the so-called “Big 4,” and they all arrive in Scotland on the heels of a Top 3 finish.

Royal Troon Golf Club has hosted the Open Championship on eight occasions. In 1923, Englishman Arthur Havers won his lone major and took home a breathtaking £75. The legendary Bobby Locke took home the second of his four Opens in 1950. Since then it’s been a home away from home for the Americans. Arnold Palmer (1962), Tom Weiskopf (1973), Tom Watson (1982), Mark Calcavecchia (1989), Justin Leonard (1997) and Todd Hamilton have won the six stagings at Royal Troon since 1950.

Between 2009 and 2011, we had three outsiders triumph in the year’s third major. Stewart Cink bested 59-year-old Tom Watson in a four-hole aggregate playoff in 2009. In 2010, Louis Oosthuizen took advantage of a good draw and eventually won by seven shots. Darren Clarke took control early in the final round of the 2011 Open and after Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson faltered on the Back 9, Clarke stumbled across the line.

The last four winners, however, have all been rather more obvious. Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and Zach Johnson had all won at least one major prior to lifting the Claret Jug. They had also combined for 81 Top 10s in major tournaments. They had all shown form coming into the Open and had all finished in the Top 10 in one of the year’s first two majors.

There are a number of trends that are applicable to the majority of Open Championship winners. For example, 18 of the last 26 Open winners had already won at least once in the year of their win. Only John Daly and Ben Curtis didn’t have a Top 3. On top of that, 14 of the last 18 Open winners had finished in the Top 6 in at least one previous Open. To go even further, 14 of the last 20 golfers to lift the Claret Jug had managed a Top 10 in one of the year’s first two majors.

If you just look at those three things, 1) Winner in 2016, 2) Top 6 Finish at the Open, 3) Top 10 in a Major in 2016, then that cuts the list of possible winners down to just eight. Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama and Brandt Snedeker are the survivors. Willett, Matsuyama and Snedeker have all failed to show anything near their best of late and if we cut them then we’re down to just five. The “Big 4” and Sergio Garcia. A member of the OWGR’s Top 4 hasn’t won the Open Championship since 2006, so… um… Sergio?

I feel like there’s a link that I’ve made that nobody else has and it’s because it’s a weird one. It is the link between Royal Troon GC and Loch Lomond GC. They are two Par 71 courses measuring approximately 7,100 yards on the water and seperated by less than 60 miles. The courses don’t seem particularly similar but you can even add to the links when you consider who designed Loch Lomond GC. It was Tom Weiskopf, the winner of the 1973 Open at Troon.

Five of the Top 8 in ’04 have played Loch Lomond GC with four of them winning there and one of them finishing runner-up. The Tom Weiskopf design only hosted the Scottish Open from 1996 to 2010 so the further back you go, the less solid the link gets. That said, 11 of the 19 golfers that finished T10 or better had played Loch Lomond GC. 4 of those 11 had won, another 3 had finished T2 and only two didn’t have a Top 15 at the course.

Ultimately, it all comes down to Eduardo Romero. The Argentinian won at Loch Lomond in 2002 and was T2 four years earlier. In 38 major appearances, Romero  has found himself in the Top 10 after 72 holes in just two majors. Those two majors were both at Royal Troon. Honestly, I’ve gone really deep on this link. Way too deep.

Statistics-wise, Royal Troon is tough to break down. It feels like there are a lot of ways to win. Todd Hamilton basically won by only hitting a hybrid, including a perfect chip (?) to the last in the playoff with Els. Keep it on the fairway. Get it on the green. Put it in the hole. I don’t know. You just have to do everything well. All-Around Ranking was a decent pointer in 2004 so if you feel the need to check stats then I guess that would be the one.

I’ll start listing my bets by saying I’ve backed a lot of players for the Open Championship this year. It’s partly because I’ve taken a lot of outsiders and partly because I’ve been able to make cases for a whole lot of players. So without further ado, my first Open Championship bet is Martin Kaymer.

I figured I may aswell start with the Ante-Post bets. The 60/1 that I’ve taken on Martin Kaymer is now gone but there is still plenty of 50/1 around and at that price, he is still a great bet. Martin Kaymer does not have a win this year. Or even a Top 3. The German has never finished in the Top 6 at the Open and he was not inside the Top 10 at either of the year’s first two majors. The 2014 U.S. Open champion is still my favourite bet for this week.

A winner at Loch Lomond GC and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Kaymer’s chances this week are unquestionable. If you look at his form in Europe in 2016 (T6-T5-T7-T5-T13) he seems like a must bet. People often forget just how incredible Kaymer has been. The 31-year-old has won two majors, a Players Championship, a WGC and nine other top events. Kaymer is a good putting week away from a big win and at the price he’s well worth giving a go.

My next ante-post bet was Alex Noren at 125/1. That price is also gone but 100/1 remains and I think he’s still a bet at those odds. The Swede is one of the European Tour’s biggest talents and coming off a big win at the Scottish Open, he’s got to fancy his chances at Troon. In 2012, Noren was playing well heading into the Open Championship and wound up finishing T9. Ernie Els was the only other player that week to post two rounds in the 60s over the weekend and he won the tournament. If he plays as well as he has the last two weeks then he can compete with the best of the best.

My final ante-post best was Scott Piercy at 150/1. Once again, the price is gone but 125/1 is still available and that’s a great bet. The big-hitting Nevadan has been knocking on the door for a long time now. After two rounds of the 2015 PGA Championship he was T7 but he faded. The 2016 Masters was another opportunity lost for Piercy. He played in the penultimate group on Saturday but couldn’t manage to keep his form up.

The 2016 U.S. Open was a huge step forward. For the 3rd consecutive major, Piercy was in the mix entering the weekend. That was his breakthrough. He wound up finishing T2 and then followed that up with a solo 2nd at Firestone. An excellent wind player, Piercy has to fancy his chances at Royal Troon this week.

With those three down it’s onto my bets from bright and early this morning. A few that I’ve been thinking about for a long time and one that just sort of jumped out at me today. Here goes.

I mentioned the man who the trends pointed to earlier in this preview. It’s Sergio Garcia. Like everyone, I have serious questions about whether or not Sergio Garcia will ever get it done in a major. If he ever does, you do fancy it will be in the Open. The Spaniard won on the PGA Tour in May for the first time in over three years and then followed it up with a Top 5 at the U.S. Open. A Top 5 in Germany in his last start proves he’s still in great form.

I do think that it’s very likely that Sergio goes well at Troon. I also believe that one of the OWGR’s Top 4 winning is incredibly likely. So my bet on Sergio is E/W Without the Big Four at 18/1 (BetVictor). With the quality of DJ, Rory, Day and Spieth, Garcia could finish 5th and still win the bet. Sitting 8th in the All-Around Ranking, you’ve got to like Garcia’s chances.

Brandt Snedeker is my next selection at a massive 100/1 (Betfred). I know that I ruled him out earlier on and it’s fair to say that he hasn’t shown his best since the Masters. Snedeker is still an excellent golfer and has played some decent golf and Colonial and Firestone in recent weeks. Snedeker was in prime position to win the 2012 Open and let it go over the weekend but still managed a T3. He has the right sort of game for the Open and he’s coming in under the radar this week.

Brendan Steele is next up at 300/1 (Sky Bet). The American has three Top 20s in his seven major starts and in his current form, he should surely be shorter than the price on offer. In three trips to France, Steele hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10. That shows that he can get it done in Europe and even though he has missed the cut in his only Open start, I like his chances to go well at Troon. Steele is an excellent player and only his play on and around the greens has really let him down. 11th in the PGA Tour’s All-Around Ranking, Steele’s chances here are a lot better than the odds suggest.

Robert Rock is the last man on my not-so-shortlist at 750/1 (Boylesports). The first round of the Scottish Open last week was blustery to say the least. For most of the day, Rock was in full control of his game and looked great. A T59 doesn’t seem great but I try to look for the positives in everything so… that’s the exact same finish that both Paul Lawrie and Todd Hamilton had in their last start before winning the Open.

Rock has a Top 7 finish at the Open,  a Top 3 finish this year and given his first round performance in Scotland, I’m willing to check a box that says he’s playing well. Rock has shown some of his best stuff in Ireland and Scotland and maybe he can’t win this week but I don’t think a place is impossible.

 

WDs Aren’t the Problem, Olympic Golf was Doomed from the Start

Another day, another withdrawal from Rio 2016. An especially productive day actually as two players have pulled their names out of the running. Jason Day and Shane Lowry have brought Australia and Ireland level with South Africa, in that their Top 3 have now all ruled themselves out.

Every time a player cites Zika Virus or a busy schedule and announces their intentions not to play at the Olympics, a flurry of complaints come in from every direction. As far as I’m concerned, the problems for Golf at the Olympics began before a single player decided against playing in Brazil.

In an event that is supposed to help grow the game and introduce golf to the masses, they chose regular, everyday Stroke Play. At the Olympics, where every athlete is competing for their country, they decided the best thing to do was make it no different from any other run-of-the-mill tournament.

Golf is arguably at its most exciting during the Ryder Cup. There is no event in golf where more passion is on display. Is there anything more thrilling than watching two golfers feed off each other as they fight for their country? Not in golf, there isn’t.

A large number of people that can watch golf at the Olympics have already decided that the sport is not for them. One would be forgiven for thinking that golf is a sport where players don’t express much emotion. You could watch hours of stroke play golf and see nothing more than a couple of fist pumps but when you force two players to work with each other for their country, passion is all but guaranteed.

To my mind it was obvious. The format should have been Match-Play Foursomes. Golfers are never more reliant on one another than when playing alternate shot golf. Two golfers, one ball, it virtually guarantees excitement. Remember the old WGC Match Play format? We bring it back. The major complaints about it were that good players were getting knocked out early and that the 3rd Place Match didn’t matter at all. The 3rd Place Match now has a Bronze Medal on the line and nobody will complain when Bernd Wiesberger and Manuel Trappel knock out Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson. It’s an underdog story and it’s inspiring.

The qualification would be simple enough. You would have to look at the 2nd highest ranked golfer (who hasn’t withdrawn) from each country and the Top 32 countries qualify and are seeded from 1st to 32nd by the rank of their 2nd best golfer. The Top 2 ranked golfers in the OWGR from those countries qualify. It may sound complicated but it’s a lot simpler than the qualification process in place.

From there, it’s simple. The 16 Round of 32 matches are played on Thursday. The 8 Round of 16 Matches take place on Friday. The Quarter Finals are on Saturday. On Sunday morning, you have the two semi-finals and then the 3rd Place Match and the Final take place on Sunday afternoon.

The Four Brackets would currently look something like this:

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It all makes much more sense. It’s the Olympics. Athletes are supposed to be pumped to represent their country. The tournament will probably end with some ridiculous playoffs for 3rd spot, a podium, medals and some national anthems. Other than that, how is this any different from what people are deciding not to watch week in, week out? Oh, right, there are less golfers that they know.

This will not grow the game. Die hard fans will watch regardless of the withdrawals. Those tuning in for the first time might have a player to support but it will barely feel like they’re representing their countries. The only people that would really lose out are Jhonattan Vegas, Fabrizio Zanotti and Siddikur Rahman and I’m sure they’d rather watch a successful Olympic campaign from home than be there whilst it crashes and burns.

 

2016 U.S. Open Preview

This is going to be a random collection of information. Some useful. Some not so much. Oakmont Country Club is a Par 70 measuring 7,230 Yards in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. The course has hosted the U.S. Open nine times, the PGA Championship three times, the U.S. Amateur Championship five times and the U.S. Women’s Open twice.

The 1st, 9th, 10th and 18th played the four hardest holes in 2007 and that was almost all down to the rough. The rough cost players over half a stroke on all four of those holes. One of the most famous holes on the course is the bizarrely long Par 3 8th. It can play as long as 288 Yards and has one of the hardest greens to find in professional golf. There were 437 shots into the green in 2007 and only 117 shots found their way onto the putting surface.

There are a number of short Par 4 holes on the course. Five of the twelve Par 4s measure less than 400 yards and those play as some of the easier holes on the course. The Par 5 4th played as the 2nd easiest hole in 2007 but the other Par 5 is a much less appetising prospect. The 12th played 0.4 strokes over par and ranked as the 7th hardest hole on the course.

OAKMONT RESULTS

Next up, here are all the results of players in this year’s field that played Oakmont Country Club in the 1994 U.S. Open, 2003 U.S. Amateur, and the 2007 U.S. Open.

Ernie Els, Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson are the only players in the field that played at Oakmont in the 1994 U.S. Open. Els (69-71-66-73) shot 74 in an 18-Hole Playoff, tying Roberts and eliminating Montgomerie and then won the tournament after another two extra holes. Jim Furyk (74-69-74-75) managed a very respectable T28 in his first ever major start and Phil Mickelson tied for 47th after rounds of 75-70-73-79.

Nine of the players in this field played in the 2003 U.S. Amateur. J.B. Holmes was the medalist after a round of 68 at Pittsburgh Field Club and an even par 70 at Oakmont. Bill Haas (74), Brandt Snedeker (74), Spencer Levin (74), Billy Hurley III (74), Jason Kokrak (75), Ryan Moore (76), Derek Fathauer (77) and Chris Kirk (82) all shot over par for their rounds at Oakmont. Subsequently, Kokrak, Fathauer and Kirk all failed to qualify for the Match Play portion. Moore, Snedeker and Levin all lost in their first match, Holmes and Hurley III lost in the 2nd Round and Haas won three matches before losing in the Quarter Finals.

Furyk (T2: 71-75-70-70), Snedeker (T23: 71-73-77-74), Els (T51: 73-76-74-78), Mickelson (MC: 74-77), Moore (MC: 78-73) and Kokrak (MC: 76-80) were all making their second appearance at Oakmont in the 2007 U.S. Open.

Twenty-two other players in the field for the 2016 U.S. Open were making their first appearance at Oakmont nine years ago. Ángel Cabrera won the tournament, beating Furyk and Woods by a shot after rounds of 69-71-76-69. David Toms (T5: 72-72-73-72), Bubba Watson (T5: 70-71-74-74), Paul Casey (T10: 77-66-72-76), Justin Rose (T10: 71-71-73-76), J.J. Henry (T26: 71-78-75-72), Peter Hanson (T30: 71-74-78-74), Graeme McDowell (T30: 73-72-75-77), Charl Schwartzel (T30: 75-73-73-76), Jeev Milka Singh (T36: 75-75-73-75), Lee Westwood (T36: 72-75-79-72), Geoff Ogilvy (T42: 71-75-78-75), Zach Johnson (T45: 76-74-76-74) and Jason Dufner (62nd: 71-75-79-80) all made the cut but the remaining eight didn’t fare so well.

Luke Donald (74-77), Lucas Glover (71-80), Soren Kjeldsen (76-75), Retief Goosen (77-76), Toru Taniguchi (78-75), Sergio Garcia (79-75), Henrik Stenson (79-76) and Adam Scott (76-82) all struggled in the conditions and failed to make the weekend but will be hoping to do better this time around.

What does this tell us? Well, Oakmont is really, really hard. 34 of the golfers in the field for the 2016 U.S. Open have played 112 competitive rounds at Oakmont and only six of those rounds have been under par. Els shot 66 on Thursday and 69 on Saturday on his way to winning in 1994. Furyk managed a 69 on Friday of that year. In 2007, Cabrera shot two rounds of 69 and Paul Casey fired a tournament low 66. Basically, only four players in this field have shot in the 60s at Oakmont.

U.S. OPEN WINNERS HISTORY

This section will be a quick look at how U.S. Open winners fared in their last start before winning, when and where that was and what their best finish of the year had been. Since 1989, every U.S. Open winner had at least one Top 6 finish in the year of their win. 23 of the 27 had a Top 3 finish and 14 of them had won already.

Since Curtis Strange won at Oak Hill CC in 1989, 22 of the 27 U.S. Open winners were coming off a Top 25 finish in their last start. Lucas Glover was coming off a T45 at Memorial but he is the only winner since ’89 to make the cut in his last start and not finish in the Top 25.

Geoff Ogilvy played the week before he won at Winged Foot GC in 2006 and Tiger Woods hadn’t played since the Masters when he beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff at Torrey Pines in 2008. Other than those two, nine of the last sixteen winners made their last start at Memorial and the other four last played in the UK. Payne Stewart in 1999 is the only U.S. Open winner since 1989 to have made his last start at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

OAKMONT 2007 STATS

Many people assume that Oakmont is all about the fairways but Ángel Cabrera hit only 27 of 56 fairways on his way to winning in 2007 and Niclas Fasth finished solo 4th having hit only 25. Just four of the eventual Top 10 finished in the Top 20 in Driving Accuracy and of the Top 5 only Jim Furyk ranked better than T25.

5 of the Top 10 finished 11th or better in Driving Distance but that is also not a necessity. Jim Furyk (T2) and David Toms (T5) ranked T44 in Length of the Tee. Cabrera was 2nd in 2007 and Fasth was 6th so the players that performed well having ranked low in Driving Accuracy ranked high in Distance off the Tee.

Putting well at Oakmont is extremely important. The greens are tough and avoiding three putts is key. Nine of the Top 20 ranked inside the Top 15 in Average Putts. Once again though, Cabrera is messing with statistical norms and finished T28 in Putting on his way to victory.

This all leads us to what appears to be most important at Oakmont Country Club. Greens in Regulation is always important and this year will be no different. With a plethora of green-side bunkers and thick rough everywhere, getting it on the green is massively important. Tiger Woods hit 49 greens and finished tied for 2nd, whilst Cabrera (1st), Toms (T5) and Kelly (T7) each hit 47 Greens in Regulation. Ultimately, 10 of the Top 13 in GIR finished in the Top 20 for the week.

STATS TO WATCH

Tiger Woods made eight birdies and no eagles and still managed to finish T2. Scott Verplank made seven birdies and finished T7. This is not a course where you need to make birdies. You are better off playing safe and avoiding anything worse than par. Geoff Ogilvy made more birdies than anyone in 2007 but still finished well down the field in T42 thanks to 25 bogeys and four double bogeys. So as you imagine, Bogey Avoidance will be important this week.

One of the stats that I’m very interested in is Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. In 2007, 22 of the Top 25 at Oakmont played enough golf on the PGA Tour to warrant a place in the rankings and only two of them finished outside the Top 100 in this statistic. Nine of them were in the Top 25 and of the Top 10 only three were outside the Top 25 and only two were outside the Top 50.

Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) is another place I want to focus. Ten of the twelve that finished T10 or better have been measured in this stat. Cabrera, Furyk, Casey and Rose have all finished a year ranked top of this ranking, as has Ogilvy (led the field in birdies at Oakmont). Toms, Verplank, Watson and Woods have all finished in the Top 10 in the stat at least once and only Ames and Kelly haven’t done well coming out of the rough.

The greens at Oakmont are going to be fast. It’s tough to know if difficult greens will reward great putters like Day and Spieth or if they will even it all out and give an advantage to worse putters like Webb Simpson and Louis Oosthuizen. Terrible putters have won majors on fast greens before though so I’m inclined to give the terrible putters a chance on tougher greens. Still, keeping big numbers off the card will be important so I’ll be taking a close look at 3-Putt Avoidance.

With all that said, the stats I’ll be looking at are Par 4 Performance, Greens in Regulation, Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) and 3-Putt Avoidance. I’ll also have a look at Driving Accuracy and also Scrambling or Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.

REALISTIC WINNER BETS

I’ve spent a lot of time over the last few weeks trying to decide which player I believe is going to win at Oakmont. I’ve gone back and forth many times and have ruled out a lot of golfers who realistically have a great chance. I’ve decided to take a risk and go for three top-class players that have struggled with the putter of late. Having seen videos posted by multiple golfers, the greens appear to be positively ridiculous.

Sergio Garcia is up first at 50/1 with 6 Places on offer. This seems like a mistake but if the greens even everything out then he has a great chance. For the third time in his career, the streaky Spaniard arrives at the U.S. Open having won in his last start. In 2004, he finished T20 and in 2005, he ended up tied for 3rd. This time around, he has had a break in between the events and I think that can only help. Garcia ranks 1st in GIR and 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and I sincerely believe this could be the week.

Charl Schwartzel is up next. He had a decent showing at Oakmont in 2007 finishing T30 and at 80/1 he seems like incredible value. Two Top 10s and four Top 20s in the last six U.S. Opens, Schwartzel has started to show a liking for the event. Already a winner in 2016, Schwartzel finished T11 at Memorial in his last start and has been getting better and better each week leading into this event. Schwartzel is a good statistical fit, ranking 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, T18 in GIR, T24 in Par 4 Performance and T47 in Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough).

The 150/1 on Webb Simpson is long gone but there is still 125/1 available. Simpson hasn’t made anything worse than bogey and has ranked 4th and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last two starts. The North Carolina man ranks 6th for the year in Approaches from >100 Yards (Rough) and T22 in Par 4 Performance. Simpson’s last start was at Memorial and his T11 was a solid showing. Webb is 5-for-5 at the U.S. Open and having won the event at a tough course already, looks great value, even at 125/1.

LONGSHOT BETS

K.T. Kim  is 2-for-2 in the U.S. Open which includes a solid showing at Congressional in 2011. T4 after Round 1, T8 after Round 2 and 9th after Round 3, only a solid final round kept Kim from a very strong finish. Since his last U.S. Open appearance, Kim has elevated his game to an incredibly high level. In his last thirty starts, Kim has won eight times and his current form reads: 1-T2-1-T3-2-1-T36. Not a great driver of the ball but he still hits a bunch of greens and makes a lot of putts. At 300/1 with 6 Places, I cannot justify leaving him out.

Another ante-post bet, this price is still available. Grégory Bourdy has gone T10-T15-T6 in his last three starts at three fairly difficult courses and he looks like really good value at 500/1 with 6 Places on offer. The Frenchman ranked inside the Top 25 in Driving Accuracy and GIR at Wentworth and Diamond CC so his game looks to be in great shape for Oakmont. Bourdy has won four times on the European Tour with his last win coming at Celtic Manor so he can clearly play tough courses. Is he a likely winner? Not particularly. Is he capable of finishing in the Top 5? Very.

Gary Stal at 1000/1 with 7 Places was my final ante-post bet. That price is also still available. Stal won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in 2015 and that should have been the start of a great career on the European Tour, but it hasn’t panned out that way. That tournament has seen an incredible number of top class players finishing towards the top of the leaderboard. However, a T6 in Austria last week was only his third Top 10 in 35 starts since the win. Stal showed his ability this week, ranking 18th in Driving Accuracy, T11 in GIR, 27th in Driving Distance and 1st in Putts per GIR. I’m very happy to see what Stal can do this week at an enormous price.

2016 Lyoness Open

Diamond CC has been the host course for the Lyoness Open for a while now and it makes its return this week. The Par 72 in Atzenbrugg, Austria measures almost 7,500 yards. Mikael Lundberg and Chris Wood won the 2014 and 2015 editions, respectively, and those are the two years that I’ll mainly be focusing on.

Of the 21 golfers that have finished in the Top 10 at Diamond CC in 2014 and 2015, 13 played at the Nordea Masters in the week preceding the event. 7 of the remaining 8 played on the European Tour two weeks prior and only Mikko Korhonen hadn’t played in the last two weeks. Add to that, in 2013 (the other year that the Nordea Masters preceded the Lyoness Open), 13 of the 14 players that finished T10 or better had played in Sweden.

Current Form is often one of the most important things to consider when trying to figure out which players are good value but interestingly, none of the 21 men that finished in the Top 10 in 2014 and 2015 arrived in Austria off the back of a Top 10. However, 5 of the 21 managed a Top 10 in their penultimate start and 7 of the 21 had finished in the Top 25 in their last start. Of the 14 others, 7 made the cut and finished outside the Top 25 and 7 missed the cut.

Another interesting mark in terms of form is that three of the Top 10 finishers in 2014 had missed three consecutive cuts and two others had missed two of their last three cuts. In 2015, four of the Top 10 had missed two of their last three cuts, including Dinwiddie who had started the year with 9 consecutive MCs before a T70 at the Nordea Masters. So, there’s a chance for somebody to come out of a slump. That said, both winners had played the weekend in all of their last three events.

Chris Wood and Mikael Lundberg both had fairly similar rankings in the stats for the weeks of their win. They ranked 45th and 44th in Driving Distance, respectively, and of the stats measured by the European Tour, that seems to be the least important. Wood ranked 5th in Putts per GIR and 6th in Putts per Round and Lundberg ranked one spot higher in both. They both finished in the Top 25 in Driving Accuracy and GIR was the only real discrepancy with Wood finishing in 6th in the stat and Lundberg only managing a meagre 20th.

I missed the 100/1 but I’m still very happy to take 80/1 about Nino Bertasio (Widely Available). The Italian is in great form at present with three of his four best OWGR performances coming in his last four starts. Wood and Lundberg both putted incredibly well on their way to victory in Austria and that is just what Bertasio does best. A T12 at the Nordea Masters could’ve been better if he’d putted as well as he did in Spain and Morocco and if the putter is hot this week then I expect him to go close.

Chris Hanson is closing in on a breakthrough win. I know it, you probably know it and most importantly, I think he knows it. At 100/1 (SportingBet), the Englishman looks great value to challenge once again. A third of the players that have featured in the Top 10 at the course in the last two years have been English and I don’t see that changing this year. T4-T5-T34-T25 in his last four starts and some very solid play at the Nordea Masters until a poor final round left him further down the leaderboard than he probably should’ve been.

Tjaart Van Der Walt is an interesting prospect at 125/1 (Widely Available) and I’m interested to see what he can do in a less than stellar field in Austria. After nine weeks off, he returned in Mauritius and missed the cut, likely due to rust but last week he managed a T10 finish in Sweden and that is very promising. That’s one of his best ever finishes in Europe and he finished a fairly respectable T32 at Diamond CC in 2014, T25 in 2013 and a solid T18 in 2012. Even though South Africans haven’t exactly excelled in this event, I think he’s a bit too big at 125/1.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera is up next at 125/1 (PaddyPower). The Frenchman has taken a huge step forward in the last year and as far as I’m concerned that all started with a T11 at Diamond CC. Is he consistent? No. Not really. Missed Cuts still come a bit too regularly but high finishes have also increased and he looks like the sort of player that is ready to break through on the European Tour. A T25 at the Nordea Masters last week is fine by me and at the price in this field, I really like his chances.

Finally, I’m willing to give Simon Khan a shot at 250/1 (Widely Available). A T15 at Wentworth was surprising despite an incredible record at the course. That marks one of only two Top 25s in his last 25 starts with the other coming at the 2015 Lyoness Open. If we can take anything from his record at Wentworth it is that he excels on courses that he likes and as I’ve mentioned above, players have come out of major slumps here so you never know.

The 2016 Masters Tournament

The Masters Tournament is now just one day away. This incredible tournament has always been able to attract even those that are not developed enough to understand and fully appreciate the so-called ‘greatest game ever played’.

A minuscule field of just 89 players assembles at Augusta National Golf Club for the 80th edition of the year’s first major. Six amateurs, sixteen Green Jacket holders and a group of sixty-seven others that includes the man at the top of the Official World Golf Rankings and another chasing the career grand slam.

TRENDS

• Since 1990, 22 of the 26 Masters Winners had finished in the Top 5 in an at least one event earlier in the year of their win. The four that didn’t all came in a row (’07, ’08, ’09, ’10). Trevor Immelman is the only winner since 1990 that hadn’t had a Top 10 in the year of his win.
• Since the WGC-Cadillac moved to Doral in 2007, Ángel Cabrera is the only winner that didn’t play in the event. 7 of the 8 that did, achieved a Top 25 finish. The outlier? Trevor Immelman.
• Only 2 of the last 8 Green Jacket winners finished in the Top 25 in their last start before winning the Masters.
• Mark O’Meara (1998) was the last man to win the Masters in his forties.
• No WGC-Match Play semi-finalist has ever won the Masters. Only one winner has made it to the Quarter-Finals.

There are more but even some of those are ridiculous.

BETS

I don’t back short priced players all that often but this year I’m struggling to see past the first six in the betting. Bubba Watson won the Masters in 2012 after finishing 2nd at Doral and then repeated the feat in 2014. It’s now 2016 and after a runner-up finish at Doral, Watson comes to Augusta looking to make it a biennial event. Watson has never missed the cut at Augusta National but both of his Top 10s resulted in a new addition to his closet. For that reason, I’m backing Bubba Watson win only at 12/1 (Widely Available).

A few months ago, I contemplated backing Adam Scott at 35/1 for the Masters. I never pulled the trigger and I’m massively regretting it now. The 2013 Masters winner, Scott has been phenomenal in majors since hiring Steve Williams as his full-time caddie. The New Zealander is back on his bag this week and that will give Scott a major confidence boost. The Australian finished in the Top 15 in 6 of his first 42 majors. Since Williams joined him, he has 14 Top 15s in 17 majors. With two wins this year and a win at Augusta under his belt, 14/1 (William Hill) is far too big.

After shooting 78 in his first round at Augusta National Golf Club, things looked bleak for Branden Grace. However, the World Number 13 ended up putting three under-par rounds together and finished in the Top 20. Only three players in the field scored lower over the last three days. Grace is now reaching that tender age where great South African golfers grow up and win a major. T4-3 in his last two majors in the US and a winner this year, I don’t quite understand the 80/1 (Bet Victor) about Grace.

The Australians tend to win in bunches. Four of the last six PGA Tour events have been won by Aussies and Marc Leishman will be keen to add to that tally. 1-for-3 at Augusta National isn’t great but a T4 in that one cut made tells me everything I need to know. There aren’t many players in the field that can claim they’ve shot 66 at the Masters and if he can shoot a couple of numbers in that range then maybe he can pick up his first major win. I’m happy to give him a shot at 80/1 (Bet Victor).

The last three are all major outsiders that would be doing great if they managed to place. Graeme McDowell (200/1; 8 Places – Sky Bet), Kevin Streelman (400/1; 6 Places – BetVictor) and Troy Merritt (400/1; 8 Places – Sky Bet).

McDowell has been solid from tee-to-green this year and just needs the putter to click. The 2010 U.S. Open winner finished 5th at the Honda Classic when he ranked T19 in Strokes-Gained Putting. Given how good he can be with the putter, a return to form with the flat stick could see him achieving a best ever Augusta National finish. Available at 250/1 with 6 Places – 1/5 Odds or 200/1 with 8 Places – 1/4 Odds. Take your pick.

Kevin Streelman has been better every time he’s come back to the Masters. Missed Cuts in his first two appearances were followed up by a T42 in 2014 and then a T12 last year. That T12 was accomplished after four rounds of par or better. This will be his first major since the birth of his son and if the improvement continues then we could see a great performance from a 400/1 shot.

Finally, we have Troy Merritt making his first appearance at Augusta National. After playing a few practice rounds, Merritt determined that the course doesn’t really suit his game. The exact same conclusion was reached after playing some rounds at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club and then he shot 61-67 on the weekend to win by 3. When Merritt is hot, he can go as low as the very best and although his low ball flight would usually be a disadvantage, with winds scheduled to kick up, it might end up helping.

2016 Shell Houston Open

In an era of golf where an era can begin and end in a matter of weeks and the word ‘era’ is as overused as it was in this sentence, the Jason Day era is back in full flow. The Australian tweaked his back in his first match of the WGC-Dell Match Play against Graeme McDowell but managed to continue, going on to defeat Louis Oosthuizen 5 & 4 in the final. That was his 6th win in his last 13 starts and pushed him back up to Number 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The reigning PGA Champion is not present this week at the Shell Houston Open but a great field has gathered to prepare for the Masters. Jordan Spieth, who lost a playoff at the Golf Club of Houston last year, is the big draw but Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel also make the trip.

Since 2007, the Shell Houston Open has taken place the week before the Masters and is seen as solid preparation for Augusta National. 6 of the 9 men who have won since then were ranked in the Top 30 in the OWGR. 5 of those 6 had already had a runner-up finish in the year of their win. Matt Jones’ win in 2014 earned him a spot at the Masters and had shown some form but DA Points and Johnson Wagner both won the tournament out of nowhere so anybody really can win here.

Spieth, Reed, Fowler, Oosthuizen, Mickelson and Garcia are all players inside the Top 30 in the OWGR who have finished runner-up at an event this year and it’s the last of those that interests me the most. At 28/1, Sergio Garcia seems like a great prospect. In 2014, the Spaniard finished 3rd at the Golf Club of Houston and in his last 10 starts, other than one MC, he hasn’t been outside of the Top 25. There are 7 finishes of T11 or better in that number, including a win. With six places on offer with Sky Bet, the 28/1 seems extremely reasonable.

Finishing one shot outside of a playoff must be crushing, that’s what Graham DeLaet managed in his first appearance at the Golf Club of Houston in 2010. The T42 that he achieved last year might not seem like much but he was right in the mix going into the weekend, shooting back-to-back 67s on Thursday and Friday. The Canadian clearly has an affinity for the course and with a T5 and a T11 in his last two starts, he’s rounding back into form at the right time. This is his last chance to qualify for the Masters and at 66/1 and 6 places on offer with Sky Bet, I’m more than happy to give him a chance.

As I stated above, anyone can win at the Golf Club of Houston and with the Masters just one week away, I’ll give Ángel Cabrera a run at 500/1. With 6 places on offer with Stan James, 500/1 seems a bit too big even if he is a bit out of form. The Argentinian has had some good showings at the event in the past and could shock a few at a course not wholly unlike Augusta National.

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I have one final bet for the Shell Houston Open. I considered leaving him out but at the price it seems a bit pointless to not have a small bet. Kevin Streelman is someone who I’m very interested in for next week but I need to see something more from him this week. In six starts this year, Streelman has three MCs and three Top 20s. A T17 at Pebble Beach, a T11 at the CareerBuilder Challenge and a 3rd place finish at Torrey Pines. The tournament begins just nine days after the birth of his second child and as we all know, that can push golfers on to bigger and better things.

His daughter was born just after Christmas in 2013 and when he arrived in Hawaii for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, he wasn’t thinking that much about golf. The birth of his first child had put golf into perspective. His last two starts before that event resulted in a WD and a 3rd from bottom finish at the Nedbank. The first start after, a T3 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. At 200/1 with 6 places on offer (Stan James), I’m very happy to see how the birth of his second child will affect him.